The Legislative Commission on Pensions and Retirement (LCPR) on Wed., Sept. 20, heard reports from the pension fund executive directors on the financial impact of the recent 15.1 percent investment return and the failure to enact a pension bill during the 2017 session. The commission also heard from the State Economist Laura Kalambokidis and State Board of Investment (SBI) Director Mansco Perry regarding national economic forecasts and the investment return assumption.
MSRS Executive Director Erin Leonard reported that the MSRS General Plan’s estimated funded ratio for FY17 is 81.5 percent (assuming a 7.5 percent investment return) and its estimated deficiency is 4.3 percent of pay. That plan’s funded ratio is projected to decline to 62.6 percent in 30 years if no action is taken to address its deficiency. Had the 2017 pension bill been enacted, the MSRS plan would have a slight sufficiency of 0.35 percent of pay and would have been projected to exceed 100 percent funded by 2047.
PERA Executive Director Doug Anderson reported that the PERA General Plan’s estimated funded ratio for FY17 is 76 percent (assuming a 7.5 percent investment return) and the plan has a slight sufficiency of 0.2 percent of pay if measured using a 30-year amortization period. That plan’s funded ratio is projected to steadily increase to 95 percent in 30 years. Had the 2017 pension bill been enacted, the PERA plan would have a sufficiency of 1.3 percent of pay and would have been projected to attain 117 percent funded by 2047. Anderson fielded questions regarding the recent Bloomberg article which focused the Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) accounting numbers. Anderson cautioned the LCPR that the GASB numbers are likely to be very volatile year to year and that they reflect only a snapshot in time rather than the long-term financial status of the plan.
TRA Executive Director Jay Stoffel reported that TRA’s estimated funded ratio for FY17 is 69.1 percent (assuming a 7.5 percent investment return) and its estimated deficiency is 8.53 percent of pay. TRA’s funded ratio is projected to decline to 50 percent in 30 years if no action is taken to address its deficiency. Had the 2017 pension bill been enacted, the plan would have a deficiency of 0.74 percent of pay and would have been projected to attain 95 percent funded by 2047. During discussion of TRA, Rep. Tim O’Driscoll commented that TRA did not come to the table, as other plans did, with sufficient benefit reductions and that TRA was asking for more funding than the other plans. Sen. Julie Rosen, commission chair, added that she appreciated Sen. Dan Schoen’s amendment to put TRA’s provisions back into the bill after they had been removed in committee. Rosen characterized the Schoen amendment as a good faith effort, but commented that it was unfortunately designed to pay for school district costs at a later time. Rosen also said that TRA had been resistant to accepting the 7.5 percent return assumption and stressed that she wanted to achieve that change. Stoffel explained that TRA is asking its actuary to perform a mini-experience study focused on economic assumption to update the actuary’s recommendations. The study is due in November.
SPTRFA Executive Director Jill Schurtz reported that the St. Paul teacher plan’s estimated funded ratio for FY17 as 60 percent (assuming a 7.5 percent investment return and taking into account mortality improvements) and its estimated deficiency is 4.2 percent of pay. That plan’s funded ratio is projected to decline to 52 percent in 30 years if no action is taken. Had the 2017 pension bill been enacted, SPTRFA would have a sufficiency of 0.9 percent of pay and would have been projected to attain 99 percent funded by 2047.
State Economist Laura Kalambokidis warned that due to an aging population, slow labor force growth and ongoing federal fiscal risks, the U.S. economy is expected to have slower than expected economic growth and lower than expected investment returns. She indicated that past performance of the financial markets does not guarantee the same future results. Kalambokidis advised LCPR to recognize that future investment returns may be lower and more uncertain than past returns. She said that getting the discount rate wrong has consequences: setting it too low can result in overstating liabilities and incurring unnecessary costs today while setting it too high will understand liabilities and push costs to future generations.
SBI Executive Director Mansco Perry provided an overview of how SBI’s assets are managed and what SBI returns have been over short- and long-term periods. He showed that SBI return performance ranks in the upper 20 percent of funds. With respect to the investment return assumption, he stated that once the LCPR changes the assumption, he recommends that it stay with that assumption for a minimum of five years because investment forecasts are highly uncertain and do not lend themselves to such precision.
The commission plans to meet again on Oct. 10 or 11.
Let’s be clear: Pensions are important to people. 51% of American workers say it influences taking and keeping a job. Like Social Security, it is somewhat sheltered from predatory advisers and brokers. While not flashy, a pension is also not volatile as the equities market is.
The average couple in the U.S. will spend roughly $250,000 in medical expenses including Part B and supplementary health and prescription drug insurance but not including long term care, and those dollar figures will inflate. How will you cope? A secure pension looks much more attractive than working until you are forced out to live on an extreme poverty Social Security check and whatever investments the financial industry has left you, if the Market hasn’t scuttled them.
The billions of dollars in nation-wide retirement investments are surely attractive to advisers, brokers and financial firms, all of whom want a slice of your pie. And they may bend, twist or disguise the facts to convince you to depend on them. They work on the businesses and politicians to persuade them that they will take care of you while sparing the big money interests from having their profits converted into taxes. Yet those taxes support the very people who—toiling away in their offices and classrooms and in their snowplows and firehouses—work to make the country educated, safe and pleasantly livable.
Since others want to take some of our money, we must all be vigilant, informed and ready to speak up in defense of the Minnesota public employee pension plans. The health of all of them is vital to the health of each of them. Connect with and support those organizations that are working on your behalf. While the Minneapolis Committee of Thirteen will work tirelessly to secure the retirement future of Minneapolis Public School educators, they need you to do two things.
Your contributions over the next 12 months will make it possible to adequately support pension friendly candidates who will in turn support you if elected. You must also tell friends and co-workers to speak up and step up for legislative support for the Minnesota Teacher Retirement Association and all Minnesota public employee pension plans. The Legislature determines all the changes to our pensions.
Help people understand that tax dollars are the price we pay for a civilized society. Let them know that those who have enough money to buy education for their kids, security systems for their property and insurance for their out-sized homes are not exempt them from participating in society. They drive on the highways, they visit the parks, they enjoy the safety and security that surrounds them, and they even hire public school educated workers who help provide that privileged life-style.
Be informed and be engaged. Stay in touch with the work of the Minneapolis Committee of Thirteen here on comof13.org (the blog), http://www.facebook.com/committeeof13/, twitter.com/committeeof13, and coming soon to Google+, and make contributions, learn about events and connect to other resources to the main Website http://www.committeeof13.org.
For those of you in schools, in Minneapolis and across the state, have a great year. Teach the children well and know that teaching is the finest vocation on the planet. You deserve the respect of all Minnesotans, and the rewards you’re earning. What you do makes America; make it Great.
An article published by Bloomberg News (“New Math Deals Minnesota’s Pensions the Biggest Hit in the U.S.,” Aug. 31, 2017), uses numbers reported under the Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) rules to paint an incomplete and misleading picture of the financial health of Minnesota’s public pension plans.
The key point to understand about numbers reported under GASB rules is that the true health of a pension plan is determined not by GASB annual accounting rules but by funding policy.
GASB reporting is not intended to provide a picture of the funded status of a pension plan. Instead, funded status is determined by an actuarial funding methodology, the objective of which is to achieve an ultimate funded status of 100 percent. If the TRA reforms currently pending in the legislature are enacted, TRA will be on that positive funding trajectory.
In response to an increase in TRA liabilities caused by longer member lifespans and reflected in the GASB numbers, the TRA Board of Trustees proposed $1.6 billion in benefit reductions and $92 million in annual contribution increases. Unfortunately, the TRA proposed financial reforms failed to be enacted during the past two legislative sessions (2016-2017). TRA will renew its request for reforms in the 2018 session.
Enactment of proposed pension reforms by the legislature would significantly improve the numbers reported under GASB rules – as will the strong 15.1 percent fiscal 2017 investment return.
The Bloomberg article claims that Minnesota has experienced “lackluster” investment returns. In fact, the State Board of Investment has averaged an 8.7 percent annual return over the past 30 years, consistently outperforming its peers (public fund median over 30 years is 8.3 percent). Returns over 35 years have averaged 10.2 percent per year.
Recent numbers reported for GASB purposes lag one year and reflect investment returns from fiscal year 2016, which were indeed lackluster at -0.10 percent. However, for the fiscal year that ended on June 30, 2017, the SBI returned 15.1 percent (public fund median for FY 2017 was 12.4 percent). GASB results for FY2017 thus will swing dramatically in the other direction. The year-to-year GASB numbers will fluctuate wildly and do not provide appropriate guidance for oversight of pension funding, which is best viewed through a very long-term lens.
Minnesota’s pension funds are not in crisis but do need constant monitoring and adjusting and, with help from the state legislature and the governor, will be on sound footing for many years to come.
Susan M. Barbieri
Teachers Retirement Association
Serving Minneapolis Public Schools educators, active and retired in securing, maintaining and enhancing strong pensions for their retirement years
After 5 years, there is a hiatus and perhaps an end. Please continue to check in. We should know better the status of of social media arm.